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Reading the filing, not the headline

AirAsia Group (5238) Q2 2026 Results: An RM831m Loss — How Much Was Fuel, How Much Was One-Off?

RaymondRates.my5 min read

AirAsia Group lost RM831 millionin the June quarter. A third of that is a forex entry that never touched cash — so the fair question is what the other two thirds are. The answer is in the company’s own cost-per-seat numbers.

RM831m
Net loss, Q2 FY2026
RM5.09b revenue
USD183
Average fuel, per barrel
Brent averaged US$96.94
−1.44 sen
Lost per seat-km flown
RASK 21.28 vs CASK 22.72

Strip the forex and it is still a RM462m loss

Q2 FY2026, RM million — where the loss came fromEBITDA+442.6Depreciation−569.5Net finance cost−340.7Associates + derivatives+5.1Loss before forex−462.5Net forex loss−331.0Loss before tax−793.5Strip the forex and it is still a RM462.5m pre-tax loss.AirAsia Group Berhad unaudited Q2 results, quarter ended 30 Jun 2026. Tax of RM37.0m takes the net loss to RM830.5m.
Every line is from the filing, and they add up exactly to the reported loss before tax.
  • EBITDA was positive. RM442.6m. The flying operation covered its cash costs — that is not the problem.
  • The aircraft are the problem. Depreciation RM569.5m and net finance cost RM340.7m — mostly leases, and they recur.
  • So forex is not the story. The RM331.0m loss is non-cash, but removing it still leaves RM462.5m of pre-tax loss.

The number that decides it

Per available seat kilometre (sen) — Q2 FY202621.28Earned (RASK)22.72Fuel 11.70Everything else 11.02Spent (CASK)−1.44 senon every seat-km flownFuel was ~51% of total cost per seat-km at an average USD183 a barrel.Company’s own operating statistics, quarter ended 30 Jun 2026. Load factor 80%, 239 aircraft, 161 of them operating.
An airline that spends more per seat-kilometre than it earns has a unit-economics problem, not a one-off.
  • It cost more to fly a seat than the seat earned. 22.72 sen spent against 21.28 sen earned, on an 80% load factor.
  • Fuel was over half the cost. 11.70 sen of the 22.72. Cost per seat-km excluding fuel was 11.02 sen.
  • The figures reconcile. 3,825,938 barrels × US$183 × 3.99 = RM2.79b, the filed fuel expense to within 0.1%.

The oil link, and why jet fuel hurt more than crude

  • AirAsia paid an 89% premium to crude. US$183 a barrel against a Brent average of US$96.94 over the same quarter.
  • Refined product moved further than the barrel. The same gap that keeps Malaysian pump prices out of step with Brent — the crack spread widened.
  • Management blames the Middle East. It attributes the loss to a 66% rise in average fuel prices quarter on quarter, from the conflict.
You cannot compare this to last year. The filing shows “N/A” in every prior-year column. The reverse acquisition of AirAsia by AAAGL means there are no comparatives — AAAGL was unlisted and never prepared interim accounts. Any “versus last year” figure you see quoted for this quarter has been constructed from somewhere else. Only the quarter-on-quarter commentary in the filing is the company’s own.
A passenger aircraft climbing shortly after take-off against a pale sky
Of 239 aircraft at quarter end, 161 were operating — roughly 30% of the fleet was on the ground. · Photo: Unsplash

What the company is doing about it

  • Cutting seats, not chasing volume. Capacity trimmed 20–25% year on yearfor Q3 — its own words, “disciplined operational execution over unconstrained volume”.
  • Handing back 25 aircraft. Older, less fuel-efficient jets returned to lessors this financial year, “substantially above initial projections”.
  • Surcharges are doing work. Capacity fell 20% QoQ but revenue only 15%, helped by fuel surcharges and higher fares.
So: one-off, or sustainable?. Neither, cleanly.The forex hit is genuinely non-cash and may reverse. The fuel spike is cyclical rather than permanent, and management says jet fuel has already come back off the quarter’s average. But the loss survives the removal of both, because at this fuel price the cost of flying a seat exceeds what the seat earns — and the fix on offer is flying fewer of them. That is a structural answer to a structural problem, and it takes quarters, not weeks.

What to watch

  • Jet fuelThe single biggest swing factor. Management put it “above USD140/bbl” when it wrote, against US$183 averaged in Q2.
  • Late NovQ3 results — the first quarter with the 20–25% capacity cut in it, and the first test of whether smaller is less lossy.
  • Balance sheetStill net liabilities of RM606m, though much improved from RM2.59b at end-2025. Shareholders’ funds turned positive.
  • Your sideBrent and the Malaysian pump follow the same crude but on different clocks.
Not financial advice. Every figure here is from AirAsia Group Berhad’s unaudited Q2 FY2026 statements for the quarter ended 30 June 2026, filed 13 August 2026, read from the filing itself. Brent figures are Yahoo Finance daily closes. This is a reading of published accounts, not a view on the shares: Rates.my holds no CMSA licence, issues no price targets or forecasts, and none of this is a recommendation to buy or sell.

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Great summary Interesting to see Airasia price on opening tmr!

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