Close-up of a computer screen displaying stock market numbers
Investing

The 13F trap

Situational Awareness 13F: What Leopold Aschenbrenner Actually Held Before the 67% Collapse (2026)

RaymondRates.my5 min read

📊 Stocks in this story · tap for live chart & discussion

NVDANvidiaAVGOBroadcomMUMicron

Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness was the most-watched fund in AI — and then, over a few weeks in July, it was gone. Its last public filing is still sitting there for anyone to copy, and it is a near-perfect lesson in why doing that is dangerous.

+439%
2026 return to 30 June
the month before it unwound
−67%
The month after
US$45b → about US$10b
45 days
13F reporting lag
newest on record: 31 March

The last filing was mostly a bet against chips

US$13.68b reported · 42 positions · as at 31 March 202661.9%US$8.46bPuts28.2%US$3.86bLong equity10%US$1.36bCallsSource: 13F-HR, CIK 0002045724, period 2026-03-31
The Q1 2026 13F by position type. The five largest lines were all puts: SMH, Nvidia, Oracle, Broadcom and AMD.
  • The biggest position was a put on the semiconductor ETF. US$2.04b of SMH puts, then US$1.57b against Nvidia — 11.5% of the whole filing on its own.
  • Its longs were the picks-and-shovels of AI power. Bloom Energy, SanDisk, CoreWeave, IREN and Core Scientific — data centres, memory and the electricity to run them.
  • So the fund was long the build-out and short the chipmakers. A coherent view, and one you cannot see at all from a list of stocks it owned.

Then July happened

Close-up of a computer screen displaying stock market numbers
Roughly 400% gross leverage turned an ordinary selloff into a margin-call spiral. · Photo: Unsplash
  • Leverage did the damage, not a crash. Reported at around 400% gross. As the book fell, prime brokers wanted collateral; raising it meant selling into the fall.
  • Citadel bought the block. Most of a roughly US$16b public-equity book went in one go, with Goldman, JPMorgan, BofA and Citi facilitating.
  • What is left is largely private. About US$10b remains, including its stake in Anthropic — none of which a 13F shows you.

Why a “smart money” tracker would have got this backwards

High-voltage transmission pylons stretching into a sunset sky
The AI-power theme runs through Bursa too — the grid and data-centre contractors we track. · Photo: Unsplash
  • A 13F shows long US shares — and almost nothing else. Copy the equity lines here and you buy the AI build-out with no idea most of the book was hedging against it.
  • The lag is the other half of the problem. Filings land up to 45 days after quarter-end. This one described a fund that, by the time you read it, no longer existed.
The Malaysian read-across. The names this fund was long — power, data centres, memory — are the same theme as Bursa’s grid and data-centre contractors and the memory story in Micron and SanDisk. A forced seller of that theme at this size moves sentiment well beyond its own book.

What to watch

  • NowThe Q2 2026 13F (positions as at 30 June) is not yet on record. When it appears it will show the peak — days before the unwind.
  • Q3The November filing is the first that will show what, if anything, is left of the public book.
  • OngoingWhether AI-infrastructure names keep trading as one basket, or start separating again.
Not financial advice. Rates.my is not a licensed financial adviser and this is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Figures are from public SEC filings and news reports on the dates shown; a 13F is a backward-looking snapshot, not a live portfolio. Do your own research and consider your own circumstances. See the live heat list for current prices.

Sources & further reading

Ready to act on this?

See the AI stocks we track

Keep reading

💬 Market Chat

Join the discussion — share your take on this with other Rates.my readers.

💬 Discussion

Your rating:
(optional)
Loading discussion…

This article is general information, not personalised financial advice. Rates.my is not a licensed financial adviser — always verify rates with the institution and consider your own circumstances.

← All insights