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China's chip mega-IPO

CXMT: China's Biggest-Ever Chip IPO — and Crypto Is Already Trading It Before It Lists (2026)

RaymondRates.my6 min read

China’s memory-chip champion CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies)has just priced the country’s biggest-ever A-share chip IPO — and in a very 2026 twist, you don’t have to wait for the July 27 listing to see a price. A crypto market is already trading it, and it disagrees with Beijing by a factor of six.

¥8.66
IPO price · ticker 688825
≈US$1.29 a share
US$9.8b
Max raise on the STAR Market
Asia's biggest IPO of 2026
#4
In global DRAM
~7.7% market share

The 30-second version of CXMT

Hefei-based CXMT is China’s answer to Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron — the country’s leading maker of DRAM, the working memory in everything from phones to AI servers. It has ridden the same memory supercycle we covered in our Micron & SanDisk piece: DRAM prices have gone vertical, and CXMT’s profits have gone vertical with them.

First-half net profit (¥ bil)~¥2 bilH1 2025¥50–57 bilH1 2026 (guided)▲ up to ~25×
CXMT guides H1 2026 net profit of ¥50–57 bil — up to ~25× a year earlier. That's the memory supercycle in one picture.
Close-up of a circuit board with memory and processor chips
DRAM is the working memory of the AI build-out — and CXMT is China's main source of it. · Photo: Unsplash

The IPO, in one picture

The deal prices at ¥8.66 a share and could raise up to US$9.8 billionon Shanghai’s Nasdaq-style STAR Market — topping SMIC’s 2020 deal as China’s largest chip listing ever, at an official valuation around US$85 billion. The chairman has pledged not to sell a share for a decade, and the proceeds go to capacity and R&D.

Jul 14Priced at ¥8.66Jul 16Subscription opensJul 27Lists on STAR · 688825today
Priced July 14 · retail subscription July 16 · trading starts July 27 on the Shanghai STAR Market.
Why you can't just buy it. STAR Market shares trade onshore in yuan and are largely closed to foreign retail investors. There is no Malaysian broker route to subscribe to 688825 — which is exactly the gap the crypto market spotted.

The twist: it’s already trading — on crypto rails

Days before the listing, a pre-IPO perpetual futures market for CXMT went live on Hyperliquid, the decentralised exchange we profiled in our crypto-rebound piece. Builder trade.xyz paid 500 HYPE (≈US$33,000) just to claim the $CXMT ticker under Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 framework, and the contract opened around US$7.20 — then pushed toward US$8.40.

One stock, two prices (US$)Official IPO price≈$1.29 (¥8.66)Hyperliquid pre-IPO perp~$8.406.5×Implied value ≈US$560 bil — vs ≈US$85 bil at the official listing price.
The perp isn't a share — it's a leveraged bet on where traders think CXMT will trade after the classic STAR-market debut pop.
Crypto traders are pricing CXMT at roughly US$560 billion — 6.5 times the value Beijing just signed off on.
The gap, in plain English

Genius or degen?

The bulls’ logic: STAR Market debuts have no price limit for the first five sessions, the free float is small, and mainland investors have nowhere else to buy China’s only DRAM champion — a recipe for a monster first-day pop. The bears’ logic: a perp can stay irrational for as long as funding rates let it, and nothing forces it to converge with the Shanghai price. One whale reportedly moved US$75 million onto the venue and went long. That is conviction — or a very expensive coin flip.

Know what this is. A pre-IPO perp is a synthetic, leveraged derivative — not stock. You own no shares, no rights, and the venue is not licensed by Malaysia’s Securities Commission. Treat it as speculation with money you can afford to lose, not investing.

The Malaysian angle

  • You can’t subscribeto 688825 — but the memory supercycle is investable through US names like Micron and SanDisk, or Bursa’s chip back-end cluster (Inari, MPI, Unisem) that packages and tests for the industry.
  • Watch the cycle, not just the pop:a cash-rich CXMT adding DRAM capacity is precisely how memory booms have historically ended. Today’s shortage funds tomorrow’s glut.
  • The bigger signal: pre-IPO perps on crypto rails just gave the world a live price for a closed Chinese listing. Expect more of this — and more SC warnings about it.

The bottom line

July 27 will settle the argument: either the Shanghai debut rockets toward what the perp implies, or crypto’s first big read on a Chinese IPO ends up 6× too excited. Either way, memory is the trade of 2026 — see where the money is flowing on today’s trending US and Bursa stocks.

Sources & further reading

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