The World Cup's Other Scoreboard: Prediction Markets Have Traded US$44.8 Billion in a Month (July 2026)

While the world argues about penalties and group-of-death exits, a second tournament has been running on trading screens — and its numbers are getting silly. In June, the month the World Cup kicked off, the big prediction-market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket traded a combined US$44.8 billion — a record, and a 75% jump from May. At current exchange rates that’s roughly RM190 billion changing hands in thirty days — on yes/no contracts about football matches, among other things.

How big is this, really?

The breakdown makes the story clearer. Kalshi — the US-regulated venue — did US$31.5 billion in June, up 87% month-on-month. Polymarket’s global platform added US$10.3 billion (+45%), and its new US arm another US$3 billion. For context, back in mid-2025 these platforms did under US$5 billion a month combined — we tracked that early surge in the AI-selloff piece when monthly volume first hit US$31 billion. A year later, one football tournament nearly doubled it.

Where the money is going

The single deepest market is the obvious one: who lifts the trophy. The tournament-winner contract has traded more than US$4.1 billion combined — about US$3.4 billion on Polymarket and US$809 million on Kalshi — with traders currently pricing France around 35% as favourite, Argentina close behind. Kalshi’s World Cup winner market alone has taken over US$832 million, and individual match contracts routinely do US$500,000 to US$2 million each. By late June, Fortune was already calling the World Cup “a US$5.4 billion betting frenzy” that shattered every prediction-market record.

It’s the same dynamic we’ve tracked all year: when one trade gets tired, the money doesn’t go home — it finds the next liquid market. Some of it went to Hyperliquid’s perp casino (whose HIP-4 upgrade added prediction-style binary options, not coincidentally); this month, a lot of it is wearing football colours.

The longshot trap

Before anyone mistakes this for easy money: the data coming out of these markets shows a familiar pattern known as the longshot bias. Retail traders systematically overpay for 100-to-1 outsiders — the “RM50 on Malaysia-to-win-it-all” style of ticket — while the boring favourites are priced razor-sharp by professionals. Analysts digging into Polymarket’s US$3.3 billion World Cup book found exactly that: the crowd’s longshot positions bleed value as France and Argentina pull away. In other words, the market as a whole is smart; the average punter inside it often isn’t.

Why the volumes still matter to you

• They’re the best odds feed in the world. A US$4 billion market pricing France at 35% is a sharper probability estimate than any pundit’s hot take — useful even if you never trade it.
• They’re a risk-appetite gauge. Record speculative volume tells you global liquidity is loose and the retail crowd is fearless — the same mood that inflates stocks and crypto.
• They’re becoming real infrastructure. The venues that priced this World Cup are the same ones now pricing elections, rates decisions and IPOs. This asset class isn’t going away after the final.
• Keep your own money boring. The tournament ends; your savings don’t. A promo FD paying 3%+ beats a longshot ticket every tournament.

The bottom line

The month prediction markets went from curiosity to a US$45-billion-a-month asset class. Read the odds; keep your ringgit where it compounds.

Sources & further reading

• The Block — Kalshi and Polymarket volume surges 75% to $45b in June
• Fortune — the World Cup’s $5.4 billion betting frenzy
• CNBC — the 2026 FIFA World Cup boosts prediction-market volumes
• DeFi Rate — live World Cup odds on Kalshi & Polymarket
• CryptoRank — Polymarket’s $3.3b World Cup boom and the longshot trap